Singapore’s blue-chip earnings season is officially upon us, and the stakes feel particularly high as we enter 2026.
Three heavyweights from the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) are preparing to pull back the curtain on their latest financial performance during the week of 2 February.
For dividend seekers, these announcements from CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX: C38U), Keppel Ltd (SGX: BN4), and Singapore Exchange (SGX: S68) are more than just numbers on a page; they represent a health check for the passive income engine.
We are looking for more than just headline growth.
The real story lies in the operational metrics and strategic pivots that will determine if these corporate giants can keep their promise of sustainable, growing distributions in the year ahead.
CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT): The ION Orchard Integration Test
Singapore’s largest commercial REIT has undergone a significant facelift, and investors are now looking for the payoff.
By securing full ownership of CapitaSpring (the remaining 55% stake for S$1.05 billion in August 2025) and integrating the crown jewel that is ION Orchard, CICT has doubled down on premium Singapore real estate.
For the nine months ended 30 September 2025, CICT reported gross revenue of S$1.19 billion and net property income (NPI) of S$874.2 million, representing modest increases of 0.1% and 0.2% year on year (YoY) respectively.
The real story though was masked by divestments and timing – like-for-like revenue and NPI grew 1.2% and 1.4% YoY respectively
Yet, a closer look at the retail segment reveals a tale of two portfolios.
While shopper traffic and tenant sales skyrocketed 24.8% and 19.2% YoY respectively, much of that heavy lifting was done by the newly added ION Orchard.
Without this Orchard Road powerhouse, the growth was significantly more modest (shopper traffic grew 4.5% whilst tenant sales increased just 1.0%).
The critical question for the upcoming report is whether the NPI growth from these expensive acquisitions can outpace the rising costs of debt.
With leverage sitting at 39.2% and an average cost of debt at 3.3%, the market is watching to see if management can wring out enough organic growth to drive meaningful DPU accretion for unitholders who are banking on the REIT’s scale.
Keppel Ltd: Cash Windfall and Shareholder Returns
Keppel’s evolution from a traditional conglomerate to an asset-light powerhouse has been nothing short of transformative.
The company has been actively monetising its assets, announcing approximately S$2.4 billion in asset monetisations during the first nine months of 2025, unlocking a staggering S$14 billion since late 2020.
The spotlight this week shines brightly on the M1 divestment, a deal expected to unlock nearly S$1 billion in cash.
Keppel has outpaced the broader market significantly.
Management has been very clear that they intend to share the spoils of these sales, but the balancing act is getting trickier.
As Keppel sheds its capital-heavy skins, such as its stake in 800 Super and the M1 telco business, it must prove that its new funds-management-led model can generate the recurring income needed to sustain dividends once the big one-off windfalls subside.
Investors should listen closely for updates on the Real Estate division’s next move, as another S$500 million in additional asset sales is targeted.
The key is how much of this cash will be tucked back into the business versus how much ends up in shareholders’ pockets.
Singapore Exchange (SGX): The Dividend Escalator Promise
SGX remains the ultimate “toll booth” business in the local market, and lately, the traffic has been heavy.
The exchange entered the current fiscal year on a high note, with net revenue climbing 11.7% YoY to almost S$1.3 billion thanks to a surge in currency derivatives (up 49.7%) and a robust performance in the cash equities market (up 18.7%).
Net profit after tax rose 8.4% to S$648.0 million, driven by higher operating profit.
What makes SGX particularly compelling right now is the “dividend escalator” management has put in place.
The board proposed a final quarterly dividend of S$0.105 per share, bringing total FY2025 dividends to S$0.375, up from S$0.345 in FY2024.
Furthermore, management has signaled a clear intent to raise quarterly dividends by S$0.0025 through FY2028, provided earnings remain supportive.
This level of visibility is a rare luxury for income investors navigating an often-volatile global landscape.
However, the exchange’s fortunes are inextricably linked to market volatility and trading volumes.
The Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities segment has become a major growth engine, but it needs to stay in high gear to support the dividend promise.
This week’s update will be a litmus test for whether the trading momentum seen in 2025 has carried over into the new year.
If SGX can maintain its revenue growth guidance of 6% to 8%, the dividend escalator remains firmly on track, making it a cornerstone for any defensive dividend portfolio.
Get Smart: Three Questions for Dividend Investors
The upcoming earnings week is about more than just past performance; it is about future expectations.
For CICT, the question is whether the premium paid for ION Orchard and CapitaSpring is generating premium returns, with DPU growth remaining the ultimate test.
For Keppel, the focus remains on the “monetisation-to-dividend” pipeline and whether the shift to asset management is scaling fast enough.
Finally, for SGX, the question is whether market activity is sufficient to keep the dividend escalator moving upward.
Three blue chips, three different growth stories.
The coming week will reveal whether these STI stalwarts can continue rewarding patient income investors.
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Disclosure: The Smart Investor owns shares of CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and SGX.
