The one word that I felt summed up 2019 was “inexplicable”.
For me, there were just far too many logic-defying things that happened during the final year of the decade.
If I must pick one word that might describe 2020, then it would probably be “division”.
That is unless something miraculous should happen between now and the end of this year that could heal the enormous rifts created by Donald Trump.
America has singlehandedly damaged world order by embracing dictators, shunning allies and instigating an ill-conceived trade war with China. Only an insane person would think that a trade war between the world’s two largest economies could benefit anyone.
In fact, the US Federal Reserve has just concluded that Donald Trump’s trade war with China has left the US manufacturing sector in a worst state than before the president started his protectionist trade policy.
Schoolboy error
In fact, any high-school economic student could have arrived at the same conclusion, even before the first set of tariffs was slapped on Chinese goods some 18 months ago.
But don’t expect any backtracking from the US administration. As Einstein pointed out, insanity is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results….
…. And sycophantic Trump supports will continue to peddle the myth that China is paying the tariffs, even though everyone knows that it is American consumers who are paying the price.
But it won’t be just Never-Trumpers and Pro-Trumpers that will divide the world. Telecom companies will be torn between choosing China 5G and US 5G. Heaven help us if we are forced to carry two different mobiles when we travel abroad.
Meanwhile, many countries around the world will be forced to choose between an increasingly more spiteful America and a progressively more benevolent China, who will try to buy its way into people’s hearts through their pockets.
And finally, a division between the haves and the have-nots could be one of the most worrying rifts this year that many governments around the world will have to grapple with, if they want to avoid popularism from bubbling up.
It’s going to be an interesting year. Hang onto your hats.
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Disclosure: David Kuo does not own shares in any companies mentioned.
