If 2025 taught us anything, it’s this: the loudest predictions are often the most wrong.
Target prices missed by a mile. AI front-runners got blindsided. Tariff chaos came out of nowhere.
And yet, here we are—still standing, still investing.
As we close out another eventful year, I thought it would be useful to revisit the key lessons that mattered most.
Not the hot takes that grabbed headlines, but the timeless principles that helped us navigate the noise.
Let’s start with a familiar trap.
How to Invest in 2025 Without Relying on Target Prices
In December last year, DBS Group (SGX: D05) set an end-2025 target for Singapore’s STI at 3,950.
The index, of course, closed at around 4,570 last week.
This is not a slight on the bank’s analytical ability — it’s simply an acknowledgement that predicting the market’s direction in the short term is a fool’s errand.
“At its core, a target price is the result of a mathematical formula.
A formula itself has no emotions.
But the humans doing the calculations do.
Thus, it is possible to input optimistic or pessimistic assumptions into the formula, and the target price will simply reflect a positive or negative outlook.
In effect, you’re inputting your emotions into the formula.
While these calculations are mathematically precise, there is no guarantee they will be correct.”
All of us could be wrong about DeepSeek and OpenAI
Earlier this year, OpenAI and its partner, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), were considered the front-runners of the AI race.
Until DeepSeek came along and upset the apple cart.
In the ensuing weeks, the media went on overdrive, writing NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) obituary while instantly declaring the winners and losers post-DeepSeek.
Except none of the prophecies turned true.
While loud and provocative declarations catch attention, they often don’t survive the humility test.
“Amid the noise, it’s important to remember that ChatGPT is barely two years old, a stark reminder of the industry’s infancy.
If history teaches us anything, we may want to put our egos aside and accept that there are developments that cannot be known ahead of time.
The AI landscape is still being written.
Multiple winners may emerge, the current front-runners could falter, and the future winners may still be on the sidelines.”
Humility, in this case, isn’t merely a virtue; it’s an investor’s most trusted advisor.
Seven steps to invest more safely amid tariff turmoil
Humility about AI wasn’t the only lesson.
In April, investors got a crash course in geopolitical uncertainty.
Volatility reared its ugly head as the Trump administration unleashed tariffs on 180 countries
There was chaos.
Everyone wanted to know what was happening but no one could keep up with the random policy shifts.
“There’s the uncomfortable truth every investor is facing: you have to get comfortable with not knowing everything.
As an investor, keeping a level head is your best weapon.
So, be sure to do all that is necessary for you to remain rational amid this uncertain environment.
That may be the best investment you can make.”
The Smart All Star Portfolio members also received a detailed blueprint on how to break down the opportunities, and how to make the most of a downturn.
Don’t fall for the TACO Trade
But as the dust settled, something curious happened.
Traders started noticing a pattern — and that’s where the trouble began.
By June, a catchy acronym was making the rounds: the TACO trade or short for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
The idea was simple: Trump announces tariffs, markets panic, Trump backs down, markets recover.
Rinse and repeat.
Sounds like easy money, right?
But there’s a problem:
“If you have noticed the TACO trade pattern, you’re not alone — and that’s a big problem.
Here’s the truth: if everyone is thinking the same way, then no one has an edge over the other.
Furthermore, if every trader is anticipating a market recovery after Trump backs down, then the competition turns into one where the fastest fingers to enter their trade wins.
That’s a race, not a strategy.”
Investment Myths in a Fast-Moving Stock Market
The TACO trade was just one example of investors looking for shortcuts in a fast-moving market.
But 2025’s volatility wasn’t a bug — it was a feature of our times.
Pat yourself on the back if you held stocks over the past five years without selling:
“… the 2020s have crammed nearly 10 years of stock market volatility into less than five years — an unusually heavy dose of ups and downs.
So, if you are feeling the stock market is moving faster, now you know why.”
The Successful Investor’s Checklist
So how do you survive a market that moves this fast?
Not by being quicker than everyone else — but by making fewer mistakes.
“Everyone makes mistakes.
Ask the late Charlie Munger, his secret wasn’t brilliance: “It’s remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”
A good checklist won’t make you Warren Buffett, but it will prevent you from being consistently wrong.
And that’s more than enough.”
Get Smart: Your Destination, Your Rules
Before we close the year, here’s what I want you to remember:
The right move isn’t about timing the market perfectly — it’s about knowing what you want and accepting what you can’t control.
If you sold because you hit your retirement number, that’s the right move—for you.
If you held for the dividends, equally valid.
If you’re building wealth over decades and can stomach the swings, staying invested makes sense.
Here’s the thing: your success isn’t measured against the market or your neighbour’s portfolio.
It’s measured against your own goals.
The stock market is simply a vehicle to get you where you want to go.”
You don’t win by selling at the peak or buying at the bottom. You win by reaching your destination.
If you’re looking for the best value buys in the stock market, read Get Smart. It will help you spot opportunities most investors overlook. Each issue gives you the context you need to recognise bargains and act confidently. Join for free and enjoy the advantage of deep investing insight delivered straight to your inbox every week.
Follow us on Facebook, Instagram and Telegram for the latest investing news and analyses!
Disclosure: Chin Hui Leong owns shares of DBS Group and Microsoft.
