Are we in a bull market or have the bears got the upper hand? It’s kind of hard to tell. Over the last 12 months, the Dow Jones Industrial Index has hardly budged an inch. On February 2022, the US benchmark index stood at 33,115 points. One year later, it is at around 33,801.
Here in Asia, the Straits Times Index was 3,420 points one year ago. Today, it is around 3,316 points. In Malaysia, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index was 1,580 points 12 months ago. Currently, it is around 1,476 points. And in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index was 23,726 points in February 2022. Today it is 20,662.
Interestingly, despite the lack of movement in the Dow, it has fallen to as low as 28,575 points over the 12-month period. But it has also been as high as 35,295 points. So, probably the best way to describe the market is that it has been range bound. Some have even suggested that it could remain that way for some time.
In fact, some have gone even further than that. They have proposed that we should capitalise on the range-bound volatility. They have suggested that we buy on the dips and sell on the bounce. They argue that if we are not actively taking profits when we have them, then the market will steal them back a few hours later.
It certainly sounds plausible enough. But how can we know when a share has fallen sufficiently to warrant a rebound. And by the same token, how do we know that it has risen enough to justify a fall. Put our trust in charts? Be my guest.
As an income investor, I would much rather put my trust in the abilities of companies to navigate through these trying times and deliver the rising dividends that I crave. Many are already doing that, successfully.
So, given that the market is one of the best places to beat inflation over the long term, why would we ever want to jump in and out of shares on a whim.
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Disclosure: David Kuo does not own any of the shares mentioned.
