There is no escaping the fact that COVID-19 will take front and centre stage during the week. The question as to whether to quickly reopen economies and risk a second wave of infection or to slow down the rate of reopening and risk economic damage will be foremost on investors’ minds.
The US could say that retail sales have come off the boil in June after a strong surge in the previous month. In May, the country registered the biggest rise on record of 17.7%, as Americans went back to work, and many stores reopened after the corona lockdown. But retail sales growth could have moderated to a more modest 4.5% in June.
Retail sales could have bounced back in China, too. In May, retail trade declined 2.8% but they could have ticked up 0.5% in June. Meanwhile, China’s economy could register an expansion of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2020 compared to a contraction of 6.8% in the first three months of the year.
The European Central Bank will announce its latest interest-rate decision. The central bank could leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0%. The Bank of Japan is also expected to stand pat on its key short-term interest, which should remain at -0.1%.
Staying in Asia, Thailand could register a small uptick in unemployment. The Land of Smiles could say that the unemployment rate rose from 1% to 1.3% in April. Malaysia could also post a small rise in the number of people out of work. It could have risen from 5% in April to 6% in May.
Singapore could say that its economy contracted by nearly a third in the second quarter. In the first three months of 2020, the GDP shrank 4.7%. The second-quarter GDP for the second quarter could come in at -34%.
And finally, Sembcorp Industries (SGX: U96) will report first-half results. In the first six months of 2019, the industrial conglomerate said revenue fell 21%. But it managed to post a net profit of $191 million thanks to a stronger performance from its energy business.
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Disclosure: David Kuo does not own any of the shares mentioned.
