Singapore’s three local banks enjoyed an amazing run last year.
Buoyed by higher interest rates and benign economic conditions, the trio of banks saw their share prices hit all-time highs.
DBS Group (SGX: D05) led the pack with a stunning 44% share price increase in 2024.
OCBC Ltd (SGX: O39) came in second with a 28.4% share price gain while United Overseas Bank (SGX: U11), or UOB, came close with a 27.7% jump.
The strong performance of the three banks propelled the Straits Times Index (SGX: ^STI) to a 17-year high and brought it close to its all-time high of 3,908 reached in October 2007.
However, investors have turned cautious.
With the three lenders logging big gains last year, is there still room to buy the local banks?
“Higher for longer” interest rates
It’s no secret that the banks have enjoyed their stellar run because of the surge in interest rates over the past two years.
From 2022 to 2023, interest rates rose at their fastest pace ever, with a 4.88 percentage point jump.
These rates were raised aggressively by the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) to fight inflation.
However, the spectre of an economic slowdown looms when rates stay high as businesses and individuals hold back from borrowing.
The latest economic data from the US paints an optimistic picture, though.
For November 2024, nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 for the month, higher than estimates for 214,000.
The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher to 4.2%.
The US economy continues to produce a healthy number of jobs despite rates being where they are now.
Last month, the Fed made its third interest rate reduction for 2024, lowering its benchmark federal funds rate to a range of between 4.25% to 4.5%.
Despite the reduction, the central bank pencilled in just two interest rate cuts for this year, down from the four that it had forecast as recently as September.
This dot plot is good news for the three banks as a sustained high-interest-rate environment will benefit their net interest margins and prop up net interest income.
Incoming President Donald Trump’s policies may also prove inflationary as he has promised to impose harsh tariffs on trade partners.
Should these tariffs come to pass, the Fed may be forced to hold rates “higher for longer” to continue combating inflation.
Better non-interest income
Apart from net interest income, banks can rely on non-interest income to boost their total income.
Non-interest income consists of fees from dishing out loans, wealth management fees from managing investment portfolios, and credit card fees from consumers using their credit cards.
For the first nine months of 2024 (9M 2024), DBS Group saw a 27% year-on-year surge in non-interest income to S$3.2 billion.
OCBC’s non-interest income jumped 23% year on year to S$3.8 billion over the same period while UOB saw its net fee income climb 10% year on year to S$1.8 billion.
All three banks have done well to grow this component of their total income, and 2025 may have more to come.
DBS projects its non-interest income to grow by high-single-digits for 2025 while UOB sees “double-digit” fee growth.
Excess capital
Being conservatively managed has its perks as it allows banks to be more resilient and able to weather tough times when they arrive.
The trio of banks reported healthy excess capital that could be paid out to investors in the form of higher dividends while also reinvesting for growth.
DBS led the way by disclosing that it has around S$5.9 billion in excess capital, or around S$2 per share, that can either be used for share buybacks, higher ordinary dividends, or special dividends.
OCBC declined to disclose the amount of excess capital it has but CEO Helen Wong says that the lender has enough capital for mergers and acquisitions and business growth.
For UOB, CFO Lee Wai Fai said that the bank has excess capital of between S$2 billion to S$2.5 billion.
An optimistic outlook
Singapore recently reported that its GDP expanded by 4% for 2024, significantly better than the 1.1% GDP growth logged in 2023.
This ending figure is higher than the 3.5% GDP growth forecast by the Ministry for Trade and Industry back in November 2024.
UOB CEO Wee Ee Cheong projected high single-digit loan growth for this year while DBS has also forecast loan growth, though it did not specify the quantum.
Get Smart: Room for further growth
Investors in the three Singapore banks enjoyed healthy capital gains last year along with rising dividends.
2025 should be an interesting year where the banks maintain their net interest income while growing their non-interest income.
A healthy economy should also spur loan growth, which should help to mitigate any fall in the banks’ net interest margins.
The presence of excess capital enables the banks to sustain or even raise their dividend payments.
In short, there is room for further growth for the three banks, barring unforeseen circumstances.
Uncover the top 5 Singapore blue-chip stocks, 5 standout performers, the biggest dividend payers of the year and many more in our FREE Special Report: Year in Review 2024! Click here now for instant access and start 2025 with the insights to supercharge your investments!
Follow us on Facebook and Telegram for the latest investing news and analyses!
Disclosure: Royston Yang owns shares of DBS Group.
