The latest unemployment rate in America has made a mockery of economic forecasts. Whilst the market was expecting eight million jobs to be cut, the US economy unexpectedly added 2.5 million jobs. Some now believe that the US economy could recover faster than expected. But others say that one month’s figures cannot be relied on.
Nevertheless, the economic numbers will continue to be ground out with the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision taking centre stage. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25%. The FOMC will also provide its economic projection, which, hopefully, will be more instructive than simply sticking a finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.
China will announce its latest inflation rate on Wednesday. There could be a slight drop in the annual rate from 3.3% in April to 2.7% in May. Elsewhere, the inflation rate in India could moderate from 5.8% to 5.6%.
Staying in Asia, retail sales in Indonesia could record its fifth monthly decline. In March, they fell 4.5 year on year, which was the steepest fall since 2011. In April, they could have fallen by almost 12% as restriction measures continue to force consumers to stay at home.
The retail sales numbers for Malaysia are expected to be just as bad, if not worse. In March, they fell 6.6%, which was the first monthly decline since 2013. In April, they could have dropped by 25%.
And finally, Malaysia will also report unemployment numbers that could show an increase in the jobless rate from 3.9% in March to 4.2% in April. Industrial production could have slowed to 6.5% in April from 4.9% the previous month.
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Disclosure: David Kuo does not own any of the shares mentioned.
